Is the worst over?

At least people are now asking that question ... but the real question is what should business owners do about it, writes Rose Lewis.

Nobody has a crystal ball but at last two facts seem crystal clear:

1. Unemployment is rising at an unprecedented rate, now mostly in secondary supportive industries, like creative services.

2. Government spending continues unchecked (for now).

Put those two together and it's no surprise that, for many, public sector work has become a lifeline. Countless creative firms have started churning out tenders for jobs that might have seemed less than inspiring, and perhaps more hassle to win than they were worth, just a few months ago.

Everyone we work with who's playing that game says they are astonished by how many bids are going in every time the public sector invites tenders. Yet even if you can win in that lottery, the future for some of the most accessible channels of public spending for growing businesses is far from certain.

Take the Regional Development Agencies, for example. They look seriously at risk, whichever of the major parties is in charge. If the writing is on the wall for them, no one should kid themselves. Come next spring, the axe is going to fall in all areas of public spending, and hard.

It looks like politicians of all sides are depending on next spring shooting forth a revitalised private economy, ready to take up the slack that the public sector will leave behind as savage post-election budget cuts hit home. Will that give us the dreaded double dip? Or will it stabilise an economy that is on the rise? I am guessing the second, but I'm not totally convinced.

But in truth it doesn't matter, because the question for everyone right now should be ... what does it all mean for ME?! We know that capitalism has not come to an end and there is no longer any excuse to stay stuck like a rabbit in the headlights. It's tough, but in many ways it is still business as usual.

If you are running a small to medium sized creative agency, it means what you have always known. You need to stay nimble on your feet and be looking for new customers. If you have a balance between public and private sector clients, you may want to alter your focus a bit come the autumn. And if you are entirely focussed on the public sector, you should prepare to fight for budget. If you are already suffering through the private sector economic decline, you need to solidify your customer relationships with companies that  will do well in recovering economies and try to bag a few of them as clients.

Everyone does well on a rising tide, but the plain truth is that, whatever shape this recession turns out to be, we will have to wait a good few years to feel that surge tide floating us all high again with both private and public sector growing. I am afraid there is no escaping the fact that it is going to be a lot of hard work and we are going to see both winners and losers for quite a while to come. If you want to be on the winning side, now is time to think through your strategy and to put in place plans to protect and grow your business.